If there were a site that let people place bets on the outcome of movie theater performance using historical data alone, the person who managed to correctly predict how this summer in Korea turned out would have landed themselves a massive windfall. To start with, director Choi Donghoon had never had a movie that failed to sweep the box office. Who could have predicted that after such incredible turnouts for his films The Big Swindle (2.12 million viewers), Tazza: The High Rollers (6.84 million), Woochi: The Demon Slayer (6.13 million), The Thieves (12.98 million) and Assassination (12.7 million) that Alienoid (1.52 million viewers as of August 20), starring Ryu Jun Yeol, Kim Woobin and Kim Taeri as it does, would be Choi’s first-ever film where ticket sales failed to break even with its budget? It’s also now appearing likely that Emergency Declaration—starring Song Kang-ho, Lee Byung Hun, Jeon Do-yeon, Kim Nam Gil, Yim Siwan and Kim Sojin and directed by Han Jae-rim, whose previous films include The Face Reader (9.13 million viewers) and The King (5.31 million)—will leave theaters with figures well below its break-even point of 5.2 million viewers, reaching just two million instead. And while it was no surprise when Hansan: Rising Dragon—the prequel to The Admiral: Roaring Currents (17.61 million viewers), Korea’s best-earning movie of all time—easily made back its budget with six million admissions, the biggest twist of all this year must be that Hunt, actor Lee Jung Jae’s directorial debut, has received more favorable reviews from audiences and critics alike than the latest from either Choi or Han.

All of these movies entered the planning stage prior to the pandemic. Alienoid, Hansan and Emergency Declaration all moved forward with their productions with the expectation that they would turn profits for investors and the production companies in line with those seen for movies that managed to exceed admissions of 10 million in the days before COVID-19. By its very nature, the Korean film industry is high-risk, high-reward, and relies heavily on profits from theaters. Unlike in other countries, Korean investment firms and production companies only see a return on their investment once a film crosses the break-even point. Compare that to a Hollywood movie or Netflix original, where they’ll only ever earn a production fee that’s a fixed percentage of the total profits. As of 2019, though, Korean films only turned an estimated average of 10.9% profit. That increased to 21% for movies costing 15 billion won to produce and 49.8% for those in the eight to 10 billion won range. Despite the inherent risk of sinking such a high investment into a movie, a star-studded blockbuster or an efficiently operated film could be expected to lead to significant profits pre-COVID-19.

Once COVID-19 hit, however, concerns of the theater business entering a crisis began to emerge and over-the-top (OTT), or home streaming, services became the main place to engage with pop culture, and suddenly moviemakers had to play by an entirely different set of rules. That’s not to say that audiences no longer see any value in the theater experience or that OTT services have completely supplanted it; theaters still have a competitive advantage when it comes to giving audiences highly immersive group entertainment experiences. The difference is that now consumers have access to attractive alternatives, like IPTV and OTT services that allow them to watch movies on the cheap after their theater holdback window and services like YouTube that provide completely different kinds of content. Plus, with the price of a ticket to the cinema now having reached 15,000 won, it’s not enough that movies released to theaters market themselves to viewers as a decent way to pass the time. “When tickets were 10,000 won, and we did market research, we thought we were doing okay when people ranked our films in the top three they wanted to see in theaters,” Along with the Gods film series producer Realies Pictures head Won Dong-yeon said in an interview with CINE21. “But as ticket prices rose to 15,000 won, we had to be within the top two.” A film that holds onto the top spot for a long time the way The Roundup did—with 12.69 million admissions—can net a profit of some 40 billion won, but if it doesn’t catch on with audiences, it can result in big losses the way Alienoid and Emergency Declaration did.

As patterns in consumer behavior shift, audience reaction has become more crucial than ever. As seen before with films like Psychokinesis and Illang: The Wolf Brigade, negative word of mouth spreads fast enough to become the basis of online opinion in a matter of hours. When people have to invest their time, energy and 50,000 won or more into a movie and dinner for two, they take negative reviews much more to heart. The industry has become far quicker to move on not only prevailing opinions and ticket reservation figures before films release but also early reviews from reporters and critics, CINE21 critiques, user ratings on major sites like Naver and the Golden EGG rating from theater chain CGV.

Recently, so-called fake reviews have become an issue in the film industry. Speculation looms around one company that is known to have benefitted from fake reviews in the past that had invested in Alienoid, Hansan and Hunt but passed on Emergency Declaration and then systematically funded negative reviews of the latter. Extreme Movie, one of the largest online film communities in Korea, has come under fire as well, with some users questioning whether the management has shown a bias toward films for which the site has been granted the right to host advance screenings and Q&As with the cast and crew. Although companies paying people to give their movies good ratings while also criticizing the competition has been a problem for decades, more and more people are now speaking out about the practice on social media and the Korean Film Council is planning to hold a panel to discuss the issue. As fake reviews become more sophisticated and word of mouth becomes increasingly influential, filmmakers have become more and more vocal about the impact that such reviews can have on a single release.

It's important to keep in mind that the public will talk about the good and the bad of every movie whether it spreads through word of mouth or a campaign driven by fake reviews. Because people prefer images and writing that’s to the point, simple takes on what makes a particular movie interesting or a blunder quickly and naturally spread like wildfire. Just as the simple stigma of a comparison to the movie REAL dealt a deadly blow to any chance at box office success a few years ago, comments like, “Alienoid feels like Ureme at times,” or “Emergency Declaration’s masochistic collectivism” turned potential viewers off of them immediately. But then there’s reviews of Hansan, like, “the turtle ships hit harder than Don Lee,” and, “you can almost feel how the Japanese invaders did if you watch it in 4DX,” and those that call Hunt “a movie where Lee Jung Jae and Jung Woo Sung try to strip away each other’s characters.” Lee and Jung, both major stars for decades, also decided to promote the film equally across TV and YouTube. The rare sight of more than 10 middle-aged men showing up for an actors’ discussion panel on Hansan became a practically universally known meme, fueling interest for the movie. In an industry where projects take a minimum of two to three years to go from planning stage to completion, costs run into the tens of billions of won and hundreds of people contribute their time, but a single meme or negative review can have an immeasurable impact, Korean film is becoming a precarious gamble with incredibly unpredictable variables.